04038 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Maine did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 85% of adults in 04038 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 04038, ~43% vote Democratic, ~42% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 04038 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 04038 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 9 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 18 leaning the other way.
04038 runs about 4 points more Republican than Maine as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 04038. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+16), a spread of about 33 points.
Why 04038 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 04038. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Food insecurity and voter turnout
Places with low food insecurity tend to turn out at a higher rate; 04038, ME sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Food insecurity does not directly drive turnout; it reflects economic hardship, which lines up with lower voting.
Why turnout in 04038 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 04038 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 04038 have completed high school, above 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maine Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations Elections and Commissions, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. ME did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.