04861 is a true toss-up. About 49% of voters here vote Democratic and 51% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Maine did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 87% of adults in 04861 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 04861, ~43% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 04861 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 04861 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 13 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 3 leaning the other way.
04861 runs about 9 points more Republican than Maine as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 04861. The east side runs the most Democratic (D+9) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 04861 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 04861. None of them point strongly toward either party.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 04861, ME sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 04861 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 04861 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 66%, about 6 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 04861 have completed high school, above 89% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maine Secretary of State, Bureau of Corporations Elections and Commissions, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. ME did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.