05649 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican. These figures are model estimates: Vermont did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the numbers above come from demographic and health features rather than local ground truth.
About 85% of adults in 05649 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 05649, ~31% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~16% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 05649 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 05649 leans more Republican than 21 of 23 neighbors.
05649 runs about 58 points more Republican than Vermont as a whole. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while 05649 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 05649. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+32) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+11), a spread of about 22 points.
Why 05649 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 05649, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
05649 votes against the grain of Vermont. Vermont leans Democratic overall, while 05649 runs about 58 points more Republican.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 05649, VT sits below the national average on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 05649 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 05649 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 89% of households in 05649 own their home, above 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Vermont Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. VT did not have precinct-level voting records available for training, so the figures here come from extrapolation across demographic, health, and land-use features rather than local ground truth. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.