07851 leans heavily Republican by roughly 38 points: about 31% of voters vote Democratic and 69% Republican.
About 87% of adults in 07851 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 07851, ~27% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 07851 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 07851 leans more Republican than 15 of 16 neighbors.
07851 runs about 43 points more Republican than New Jersey as a whole. New Jersey leans Democratic overall, while 07851 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 07851 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 07851, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in 07851 live in densely developed areas, about 60 points below the New Jersey average of 63%. 07851 runs against the grain of New Jersey, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 07851, NJ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 07851 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 07851 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 95% of households in 07851 own their home, about 20 points above the U.S. average of 75%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 07851 have completed high school, above 86% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Jersey Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.