10307 is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 10307 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 10307, ~14% vote Democratic, ~57% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 10307 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 10307 is the most Republican-leaning.
10307 runs about 74 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 10307 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 10307. The south side is the most Republican-leaning (R+67) and the northwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+53), a spread of about 14 points.
Why 10307 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 10307, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
10307 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 82%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 10307 are family households, above 86% of zip codes. 10307 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with high colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 10307, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 10307 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 10307 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.