10954 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 67% of adults in 10954 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 10954, ~36% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~33% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 10954 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 10954 leans more Democratic than 28 of 61 neighbors.
10954 runs about 4 points more Republican than New York as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 10954. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+39) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+20), a spread of about 59 points.
Why 10954 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 10954, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 92% of residents in 10954 live in densely developed areas, about 56 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 10954 sits in the top quarter (about 49%, above 88% of zip codes). A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 35% of adults in 10954 have never been married, above 78% of zip codes.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 10954, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 10954 looks the way it does
Turnout in 10954 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.