11554 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 76% of adults in 11554 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 11554, ~35% vote Democratic, ~41% Republican, and ~24% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 11554 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 11554 leans more Republican than 81 of 117 neighbors.
11554 runs about 21 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 11554 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 11554. The southwest side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+16), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 11554 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 11554, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
11554 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (more than 99%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 80% of households in 11554 are family households, above 92% of zip codes. 11554 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 11554, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 11554 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 11554 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 91% of households in 11554 own their home, compared to around 74% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.