11949 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 80% of adults in 11949 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 11949, ~29% vote Democratic, ~51% Republican, and ~20% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 11949 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 11949 is the most Republican-leaning.
11949 runs about 41 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 11949 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 11949 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 11949, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in 11949 drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%. 11949 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as 11949, NY does.
Why turnout in 11949 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in 11949 have completed high school, about 5 points above the New York average of 91%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 88% of households in 11949 own their home, above 81% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.