11950 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 11950 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 11950, ~25% vote Democratic, ~34% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 11950 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 11950 leans more Republican than 19 of 44 neighbors.
11950 runs about 28 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 11950 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 11950. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+34) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+6), a spread of about 28 points.
Why 11950 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 11950, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
11950 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 90%, far above the New York average of 36%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 82% of households in 11950 are family households, above 95% of zip codes. 11950 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Never-married share, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine a never-married-heavy adult population and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 11950, NY does.
Why turnout in 11950 looks the way it does
Turnout in 11950 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.