12489 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 37% of adults in 12489 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12489, ~17% vote Democratic, ~20% Republican, and ~63% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12489 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12489 leans more Republican than 11 of 29 neighbors.
12489 runs about 20 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12489 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12489. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+30) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+3), a spread of about 26 points.
Why 12489 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12489, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in 12489 live in densely developed areas, about 30 points below the New York average of 36%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 12489 sits in the bottom quarter (about 10%, below 93% of zip codes). 12489 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 12489, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 12489 looks the way it does
Areas with low high-school completion turn out at lower rates. About 52% of adults in 12489 have completed high school, about 38 points below the U.S. average of 90%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.