12458 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 61% of adults in 12458 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12458, ~26% vote Democratic, ~35% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12458 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12458 leans more Republican than 15 of 31 neighbors.
12458 runs about 26 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12458 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12458. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+17) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+29), a spread of about 47 points.
Why 12458 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12458, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 13% of adults in 12458 hold a bachelor's degree, about 20 points below the New York average of 34%. 12458 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 12458, NY sits below the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 12458 looks the way it does
Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 73% of adults in 12458 have completed high school, below 97% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.