12582 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 66% of adults in 12582 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12582, ~30% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~34% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12582 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12582 leans more Republican than 11 of 26 neighbors.
12582 runs about 20 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12582 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 12582. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+19) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+25), a spread of about 44 points.
Why 12582 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12582, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 85% of residents in 12582 drive to work alone, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 74%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 86% of households in 12582 are family households, above 98% of zip codes. 12582 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Republican lean
Places with low park coverage tend to lean Republican; 12582, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 12582 looks the way it does
Turnout in 12582 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.