12819 leans heavily Republican by roughly 34 points: about 33% of voters vote Democratic and 67% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 12819 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12819, ~24% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12819 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12819 leans more Republican than 7 of 13 neighbors.
12819 runs about 46 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12819 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12819 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12819, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in 12819 live in densely developed areas, about 33 points below the New York average of 36%. 12819 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 12819, NY sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 12819 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12819 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 65%, above 64% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.