12870 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 73% of adults in 12870 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12870, ~37% vote Democratic, ~36% Republican, and ~27% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12870 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12870 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 11 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 1 leaning the other way.
12870 runs about 11 points more Republican than New York as a whole.
Why 12870 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 12870. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; 12870, NY sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 12870 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 12870 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 12870 have completed high school, above 82% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.