12930 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 59% of adults in 12930 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 12930, ~15% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~41% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 12930 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 12930 is the most Republican-leaning.
12930 runs about 60 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 12930 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 12930 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 12930, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In 12930, about 95% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 16% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 18 points below the New York average of 34%. Rural areas vote Republican, and 12930 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 4%, below 87% of zip codes). 12930 runs against the grain of New York, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 12930, NY sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 12930 looks the way it does
Crowded housing lines up with lower turnout. About 4% of homes in 12930 have more than one occupant per room, above 84% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.