14812 leans heavily Republican by roughly 40 points: about 30% of voters vote Democratic and 70% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 14812 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 14812, ~22% vote Democratic, ~52% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 14812 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 14812 leans more Republican than 15 of 19 neighbors.
14812 runs about 52 points more Republican than New York as a whole. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14812 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 14812. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+47) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+34), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 14812 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 14812, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
14812 votes against the grain of New York. New York leans Democratic overall, while 14812 runs about 52 points more Republican.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 14812, NY sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 14812 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 91% of households in 14812 own their home, about 15 points above the New York average of 76%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New York State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.