15038 leans heavily Republican by roughly 36 points: about 32% of voters vote Democratic and 68% Republican.
About more than 99% of adults in 15038 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 15038, ~35% vote Democratic, ~76% Republican, and ~-11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 15038 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 15038 leans more Republican than 85 of 110 neighbors.
15038 runs about 35 points more Republican than Pennsylvania as a whole.
Why 15038 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 15038, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In 15038, about 98% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 26 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 13% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 13 points below the Pennsylvania average of 26%.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 15038, PA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 15038 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 15038 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 15038 have completed high school, above 90% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Pennsylvania Department of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.