21154 leans heavily Republican by roughly 46 points: about 27% of voters vote Democratic and 73% Republican.
About 82% of adults in 21154 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 21154, ~22% vote Democratic, ~60% Republican, and ~18% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 21154 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 21154 leans more Republican than 21 of 31 neighbors.
21154 runs about 76 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21154 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 21154 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 21154, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
21154 votes against the grain of Maryland. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21154 runs about 76 points more Republican. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 84% of residents in 21154 drive to work alone, above 85% of zip codes. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in 21154 are family households, above 83% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 21154, MD sits above the national average on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 21154 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 21154 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 65%, above 64% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.