21865 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 79% of adults in 21865 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 21865, ~29% vote Democratic, ~50% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 21865 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 21865 leans more Republican than 8 of 18 neighbors.
21865 runs about 54 points more Republican than Maryland as a whole. Maryland leans Democratic overall, while 21865 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 21865 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 21865, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 6% of residents in 21865 live in densely developed areas, about 38 points below the Maryland average of 43%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 87% of households in 21865 are family households, above 98% of zip codes. 21865 runs against the grain of Maryland, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a rural land-use pattern tend to turn out at a higher rate, as 21865, MD does.
Why turnout in 21865 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 21865 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 63%, above 56% of zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 21865 have completed high school, above 93% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Maryland State Board of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.