22811 is a Republican stronghold. About 16% of voters here vote Democratic and 84% Republican.
About 89% of adults in 22811 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22811, ~14% vote Democratic, ~75% Republican, and ~11% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22811 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22811 leans more Republican than 5 of 7 neighbors.
22811 runs about 73 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22811 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 22811 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22811, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 5% of residents in 22811 live in densely developed areas, about 21 points below the Virginia average of 26%. A high white share with below-average college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 22811 fits that profile on both counts. 22811 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 22811, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 22811 looks the way it does
Turnout in 22811 sits close to the national pattern. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.