22849 is a Republican stronghold. About 22% of voters here vote Democratic and 78% Republican.
About 83% of adults in 22849 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22849, ~18% vote Democratic, ~65% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22849 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22849 leans more Republican than 12 of 14 neighbors.
22849 runs about 61 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22849 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 22849. The northeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+62) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+42), a spread of about 19 points.
Why 22849 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22849, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 10% of adults in 22849 hold a bachelor's degree, about 19 points below the Virginia average of 29%. Car-dependent areas vote Republican, and about 83% of residents in 22849 drive to work alone, above 82% of zip codes. 22849 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; 22849, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 22849 looks the way it does
Turnout in 22849 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.