22851 is a Republican stronghold. About 19% of voters here vote Democratic and 81% Republican.
About 79% of adults in 22851 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 22851, ~15% vote Democratic, ~64% Republican, and ~21% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 22851 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 22851 leans more Republican than 9 of 10 neighbors.
22851 runs about 67 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 22851 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 22851 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 22851, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in 22851 hold a bachelor's degree, about 20 points below the Virginia average of 29%. 22851 runs against the grain of Virginia, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
High-school completion and voter turnout
Places with low high-school-completion share tend to turn out at a lower rate; 22851, VA sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 22851 looks the way it does
Turnout in 22851 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.