23321 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 14 points: about 57% of voters vote Democratic and 43% Republican.
About 87% of adults in 23321 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23321, ~50% vote Democratic, ~37% Republican, and ~13% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23321 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23321 leans more Democratic than 10 of 40 neighbors.
23321 runs about 9 points more Democratic than Virginia as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 23321. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (D+60) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 73 points.
Why 23321 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23321, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 23321 is about 49%, about 23 points below the U.S. average of 72%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 23321 sits in the top quarter (about 40%, above 80% of zip codes).
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 23321, VA sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 23321 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23321 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 23321 have completed high school, above 87% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.