23845 leans Republican by roughly 28 points: about 36% of voters vote Democratic and 64% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 23845 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 23845, ~22% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~38% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 23845 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 23845 leans more Republican than 9 of 10 neighbors.
23845 runs about 33 points more Republican than Virginia as a whole. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23845 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Why 23845 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 23845, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
23845 votes against the grain of Virginia. Virginia leans Democratic overall, while 23845 runs about 33 points more Republican. Rural areas vote Republican, and 23845 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 6%, below 78% of zip codes).
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 23845, VA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 23845 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 23845 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 63%, modestly above similar-sized zip codes (around 56%). Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 97% of households in 23845 own their home, compared to around 80% in nearby zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Virginia Department of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.