32812 is a true toss-up. About 51% of voters here vote Democratic and 49% Republican.
About 63% of adults in 32812 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32812, ~32% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32812 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32812 sits roughly in the middle of the political spectrum, with 13 neighbors leaning further in the place's direction and 36 leaning the other way.
32812 runs about 14 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32812 sits closer to the political middle.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32812. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+20) and the west side runs the most Republican (R+13), a spread of about 33 points.
Why 32812 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32812, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
32812 votes against the grain of Florida. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32812 runs about 14 points more Democratic.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 32812, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 32812 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32812 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.