32809 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 10 points: about 55% of voters vote Democratic and 45% Republican.
About 50% of adults in 32809 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 32809, ~28% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~50% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 32809 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 32809 leans more Democratic than 30 of 46 neighbors.
32809 runs about 23 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 32809 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 32809. The northwest side runs the most Democratic (D+21) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+14), a spread of about 35 points.
Why 32809 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 32809, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 87% of residents in 32809 live in densely developed areas, about 50 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 39% of adults in 32809 have never been married, above 87% of zip codes. 32809 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 32809, FL sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 32809 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 32809 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 9 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 46% of households in 32809 rent, about 21 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 81% of adults in 32809 have completed high school, below 89% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.