33438 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 33% of adults in 33438 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 33438, ~14% vote Democratic, ~19% Republican, and ~67% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 33438 compares
33438 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
33438 runs about 5 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 33438. The west side is the most Republican-leaning (R+26) and the southwest side is the least Republican-leaning (R+6), a spread of about 20 points.
Why 33438 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 33438, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 75% of households in 33438 are family households, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a high uninsured rate tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 33438, FL does.
Why turnout in 33438 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 33438 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 28%, about 29 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 40% of households in 33438 rent, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 25%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 48% of adults in 33438 have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.