34951 leans Republican by roughly 26 points: about 37% of voters vote Democratic and 63% Republican.
About 70% of adults in 34951 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 34951, ~26% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~30% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 34951 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 34951 leans more Republican than 12 of 14 neighbors.
34951 runs about 14 points more Republican than Florida as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 34951. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+44) and the east side is the least Republican-leaning (R+16), a spread of about 29 points.
Why 34951 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 34951, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 83% of residents in 34951 drive to work alone, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 34951, FL sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 34951 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 34951 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 56%, below 73% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.