34946 leans Democratic by roughly 26 points: about 63% of voters vote Democratic and 37% Republican.
About 60% of adults in 34946 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 34946, ~38% vote Democratic, ~22% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 34946 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 34946 leans more Democratic than 14 of 16 neighbors.
34946 runs about 39 points more Democratic than Florida as a whole. Florida leans Republican overall, while 34946 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 34946. The west side runs the most Democratic (D+73) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+32), a spread of about 106 points.
Why 34946 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 34946, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 34946 is about 30%, about 42 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 38% of adults in 34946 have never been married, above 84% of zip codes. 34946 runs against the grain of Florida, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 34946, FL does.
Why turnout in 34946 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 34946 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 43%, about 13 points below the Florida average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 37% of households in 34946 rent, above 84% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 74% of adults in 34946 have completed high school, below 96% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Florida Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.