38012 leans Democratic by roughly 24 points: about 62% of voters vote Democratic and 38% Republican.
About 61% of adults in 38012 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38012, ~38% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~39% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38012 compares
38012 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
38012 runs about 53 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38012 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38012. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+44) and the northeast side runs the most Republican (R+24), a spread of about 67 points.
Why 38012 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38012, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
38012 votes against the grain of Tennessee. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38012 runs about 53 points more Democratic. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 40% of adults in 38012 have never been married, above 88% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 38012, TN sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 38012 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38012 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 46%, about 10 points below the Tennessee average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 42% of households in 38012 rent, compared to around 27% in nearby zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 84% of adults in 38012 have completed high school, below 84% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.