38301 leans Democratic by roughly 18 points: about 59% of voters vote Democratic and 41% Republican.
About 52% of adults in 38301 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 38301, ~31% vote Democratic, ~21% Republican, and ~48% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 38301 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 38301 is the most Democratic-leaning.
38301 runs about 48 points more Democratic than Tennessee as a whole. Tennessee leans Republican overall, while 38301 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 38301. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+75) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+41), a spread of about 116 points.
Why 38301 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 38301, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Density combined with diversity predicts Democratic voting. Non-Hispanic white share in 38301 is about 42%, about 30 points below the U.S. average of 72%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 42% of adults in 38301 have never been married, above 89% of zip codes. 38301 runs against the grain of Tennessee, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 38301, TN sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 38301 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 38301 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 9 points below the Tennessee average of 56%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 51% of households in 38301 rent, compared to around 21% in nearby zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 84% of adults in 38301 have completed high school, below 83% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Tennessee Secretary of State, Division of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.