51038 is a Republican stronghold. About 22% of voters here vote Democratic and 78% Republican.
About 81% of adults in 51038 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 51038, ~18% vote Democratic, ~63% Republican, and ~19% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 51038 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 51038 leans more Republican than 5 of 7 neighbors.
51038 runs about 43 points more Republican than Iowa as a whole.
Why 51038 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 51038, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with a high white share and below-average college attainment vote Republican. In 51038, about 95% of residents are non-Hispanic white, about 23 points above the U.S. average of 72%; about 19% of adults hold a bachelor's degree, about 6 points below the Iowa average of 24%. Rural areas vote Republican, and 51038 sits in the bottom quarter on density (about 6%, below 75% of zip codes). A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 76% of households in 51038 are family households, above 82% of zip codes.
Population density and Republican lean
Places with low population density tend to lean Republican; 51038, IA sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 51038 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 51038 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 71%, about 11 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Iowa Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.