78209 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 12 points: about 56% of voters vote Democratic and 44% Republican.
About 71% of adults in 78209 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78209, ~40% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~29% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78209 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78209 leans more Democratic than 20 of 58 neighbors.
78209 runs about 25 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78209 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78209. The southwest side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+26) and the southeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (Even), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 78209 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78209, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 62% of adults in 78209 hold a bachelor's degree, about 33 points above the U.S. average of 28%. Dense areas vote Democratic, and 78209 sits in the top fifth on density (about 99%, above 95% of zip codes). 78209 runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 78209, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 78209 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in 78209 have completed high school, about 11 points above the Texas average of 86%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.