78212 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 38 points: about 69% of voters vote Democratic and 31% Republican.
About 51% of adults in 78212 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78212, ~35% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~49% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78212 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78212 leans more Democratic than 55 of 59 neighbors.
78212 runs about 52 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78212 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78212. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+50) and the northeast side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 43 points.
Why 78212 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78212, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 78212 live in densely developed areas, about 63 points above the U.S. average of 36%. High college attainment predicts Democratic voting, and 78212 sits in the top quarter (about 43%, above 83% of zip codes). 78212 runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 78212, TX sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 78212 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78212 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 21%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 10%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 48% of households in 78212 rent, compared to around 64% in nearby zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 86% of adults in 78212 have completed high school, below 77% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.