78202 leans heavily Democratic by roughly 48 points: about 74% of voters vote Democratic and 26% Republican.
About 40% of adults in 78202 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78202, ~30% vote Democratic, ~10% Republican, and ~60% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78202 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78202 leans more Democratic than 55 of 56 neighbors.
78202 runs about 61 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole. Texas leans Republican overall, while 78202 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78202. The northeast side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+52) and the southwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+39), a spread of about 13 points.
Why 78202 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78202, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. More than 99% of residents in 78202 live in densely developed areas, about 64 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 47% of adults in 78202 have never been married, above 93% of zip codes. 78202 runs against the grain of Texas, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 78202, TX sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 78202 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78202 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 44%, about 9 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 45% of households in 78202 rent, compared to around 63% in nearby zip codes. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 78202 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.