78409 leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 45% of adults in 78409 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78409, ~20% vote Democratic, ~25% Republican, and ~55% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78409 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78409 leans more Republican than 13 of 20 neighbors.
Politically, 78409 sits close to the rest of Texas.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 78409. The southeast side runs the most Democratic (Even) and the northwest side runs the most Republican (R+23), a spread of about 23 points.
Why 78409 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78409, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with low college attainment vote Republican. About 9% of adults in 78409 hold a bachelor's degree, about 16 points below the Texas average of 26%.
High-school completion, developed land, and voter turnout
Places that combine low high-school-completion share and a heavily developed built environment tend to turn out at a lower rate, as 78409, TX does.
Why turnout in 78409 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78409 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 47%, about 7 points below the Texas average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 37% of households in 78409 rent, above 84% of zip codes. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 76% of adults in 78409 have completed high school, below 95% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.