78561 leans slightly Republican by roughly 6 points: about 47% of voters vote Democratic and 53% Republican.
About 43% of adults in 78561 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 78561, ~20% vote Democratic, ~23% Republican, and ~57% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 78561 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 78561 leans more Republican than 4 of 8 neighbors.
78561 runs about 8 points more Democratic than Texas as a whole.
Why 78561 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 78561, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. About 3% of residents in 78561 live in densely developed areas, about 32 points below the Texas average of 35%. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 79% of households in 78561 are family households, above 90% of zip codes.
Walkability and Republican lean
Places with a low walkability score tend to lean Republican; 78561, TX sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 78561 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 78561 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 39%, about 15 points below the Texas average of 54%. Low high-school completion lines up with lower turnout, and about 60% of adults in 78561 have completed high school, in the bottom fraction of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.