85142 leans Republican by roughly 30 points: about 35% of voters vote Democratic and 65% Republican.
About 83% of adults in 85142 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85142, ~29% vote Democratic, ~54% Republican, and ~17% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85142 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85142 leans more Republican than 19 of 22 neighbors.
85142 runs about 24 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85142. The southwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+43) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+21), a spread of about 21 points.
Why 85142 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85142, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85142 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 81%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 86% of households in 85142 are family households, above 98% of zip codes.
Homeownership and voter turnout
Places with homeowner-heavy households tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85142, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 85142 looks the way it does
Homeowners vote more often than renters. About 88% of households in 85142 own their home, about 15 points above the Arizona average of 73%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 96% of adults in 85142 have completed high school, above 82% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.