85249 leans slightly Republican by roughly 10 points: about 45% of voters vote Democratic and 55% Republican.
About 85% of adults in 85249 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85249, ~38% vote Democratic, ~47% Republican, and ~15% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85249 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85249 leans more Republican than 19 of 30 neighbors.
Politically, 85249 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85249. The northeast side is the most split-leaning (R+13) and the northwest side is the least split-leaning (Even), a spread of about 12 points.
Why 85249 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85249, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85249 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 98%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 83% of households in 85249 are family households, above 95% of zip codes.
High-school completion, uninsured rate, and voter turnout
Places that combine high-school-completion-heavy adults and a low uninsured rate tend to turn out at a higher rate, as 85249, AZ does.
Why turnout in 85249 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 85249 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 70%, about 10 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 89% of households in 85249 own their home, compared to around 70% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 97% of adults in 85249 have completed high school, above 88% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.