85296 leans slightly Republican by roughly 12 points: about 44% of voters vote Democratic and 56% Republican.
About 77% of adults in 85296 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85296, ~34% vote Democratic, ~43% Republican, and ~23% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85296 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85296 leans more Republican than 22 of 35 neighbors.
85296 runs about 7 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85296. The north side is the most Republican-leaning (R+21) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+4), a spread of about 18 points.
Why 85296 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85296, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85296 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 92%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). State and regional patterns outweigh the Democratic lean that density usually predicts here. A high family-household share predicts Republican voting, and about 77% of households in 85296 are family households, above 85% of zip codes.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with strong routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a higher rate; 85296, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 85296 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 96% of adults in 85296 have completed high school, about 9 points above the Arizona average of 87%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.