85209 leans Republican by roughly 18 points: about 41% of voters vote Democratic and 59% Republican.
About 75% of adults in 85209 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85209, ~31% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~25% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85209 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85209 leans more Republican than 18 of 28 neighbors.
85209 runs about 13 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Why 85209 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85209, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85209 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 95%, far above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 85209, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85209 looks the way it does
Turnout in 85209 sits close to the national pattern. Routine healthcare access, homeownership, education, and food security all land near their national averages here. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.