85303 leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 42% of adults in 85303 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85303, ~26% vote Democratic, ~16% Republican, and ~58% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85303 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 85303 leans more Democratic than 38 of 65 neighbors.
85303 runs about 27 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85303 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85303. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+32) and the northwest side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+7), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 85303 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85303, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Dense areas vote Democratic. About 97% of residents in 85303 live in densely developed areas, about 61 points above the U.S. average of 36%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 43% of adults in 85303 have never been married, above 91% of zip codes. 85303 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Walkability and Democratic lean
Places with a highly walkable street grid tend to lean Democratic; 85303, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. A walkable street grid does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban a place is.
Why turnout in 85303 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85303 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 48%, about 6 points below the Arizona average of 54%. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 40% of households in 85303 rent, about 15 points above the U.S. average of 25%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in 85303 report food insecurity, above 92% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.