85321 leans slightly Democratic by roughly 8 points: about 54% of voters vote Democratic and 46% Republican.
About 62% of adults in 85321 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 85321, ~34% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~37% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 85321 compares
85321 runs about 14 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85321 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 85321. The east side is the most Democratic-leaning (D+43) and the north side is the least Democratic-leaning (D+6), a spread of about 37 points.
Why 85321 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 85321, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
85321 votes against the grain of Arizona. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 85321 runs about 14 points more Democratic.
Paved land cover and Democratic lean
Places with extensive paved surfaces tend to lean Democratic; 85321, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 85321 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 85321 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.