86018 leans heavily Republican by roughly 44 points: about 28% of voters vote Democratic and 72% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 86018 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86018, ~21% vote Democratic, ~53% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86018 compares
86018 sits in a sparsely populated area with few comparable zip codes nearby.
86018 runs about 38 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86018. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+45) and the southeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+10), a spread of about 35 points.
Why 86018 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86018, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with many family households vote Republican. About 75% of households in 86018 are family households, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 67%.
Paved land cover and Republican lean
Places with little paved surface tend to lean Republican; 86018, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Paved ground does not change how people vote; it mostly reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86018 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 86018 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 69%, about 9 points above the U.S. average of 60%. Homeowners vote more often than renters, and about 97% of households in 86018 own their home, compared to around 63% in nearby zip codes. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 86018 have completed high school, above 93% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.