86025 leans Republican by roughly 16 points: about 42% of voters vote Democratic and 58% Republican.
About 54% of adults in 86025 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86025, ~23% vote Democratic, ~31% Republican, and ~46% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86025 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86025 leans more Republican than 1 of 3 neighbors.
86025 runs about 10 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86025. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+31) and the northeast side is the least Republican-leaning (R+6), a spread of about 25 points.
Why 86025 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86025, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Car-dependent areas vote Republican. About 86% of residents in 86025 drive to work alone, about 12 points above the U.S. average of 74%.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86025, AZ sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 86025 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86025 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Renters vote less often than owners, and about 36% of households in 86025 rent, above 83% of zip codes. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 25% of adults in 86025 report food insecurity, above 88% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.