86351 leans Democratic by roughly 16 points: about 58% of voters vote Democratic and 42% Republican.
About 92% of adults in 86351 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86351, ~53% vote Democratic, ~39% Republican, and ~8% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86351 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86351 is the most Democratic-leaning.
86351 runs about 21 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86351 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86351. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+25) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+10), a spread of about 35 points.
Why 86351 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86351, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 53% of adults in 86351 hold a bachelor's degree, about 24 points above the U.S. average of 28%. 86351 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Park access and Democratic lean
Places with heavy park coverage tend to lean Democratic; 86351, AZ sits in the top tenth nationally on this measure. Park access does not change how people vote; it tends to track denser, higher-income areas.
Why turnout in 86351 looks the way it does
Areas with strong routine healthcare access turn out at higher rates. 86351 is in the top quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 68%, about 8 points above the U.S. average of 60%. High high-school completion lines up with higher turnout, and about 98% of adults in 86351 have completed high school, above 93% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.