86326 leans slightly Republican by roughly 8 points: about 46% of voters vote Democratic and 54% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 86326 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86326, ~34% vote Democratic, ~40% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86326 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86326 leans more Republican than 1 of 6 neighbors.
Politically, 86326 sits close to the rest of Arizona.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86326. The north side runs the most Democratic (D+4) and the southwest side runs the most Republican (R+28), a spread of about 32 points.
Why 86326 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86326, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
86326 votes Republican even though it is densely developed (about 63%, well above the Arizona average of 39%). Here an older population outweighs the Democratic lean that density usually predicts.
Local retail density and voter turnout
Places with dense local retail within a mile tend to turn out at a higher rate; 86326, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure. Nearby retail does not change how people vote; it reflects how urban and built-up a place is.
Why turnout in 86326 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86326 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.