86005 leans Democratic by roughly 22 points: about 61% of voters vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
About 74% of adults in 86005 typically vote, above the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86005, ~45% vote Democratic, ~29% Republican, and ~26% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86005 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86005 leans more Democratic than 3 of 5 neighbors.
86005 runs about 28 points more Democratic than Arizona as a whole. Arizona leans Republican overall, while 86005 is one of the few Democratic-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86005. The northeast side runs the most Democratic (D+40) and the southeast side runs the most Republican (R+9), a spread of about 49 points.
Why 86005 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 86005, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Areas with high college attainment vote Democratic. About 59% of adults in 86005 hold a bachelor's degree, about 30 points above the U.S. average of 28%. A high never-married share predicts Democratic voting, and about 37% of adults in 86005 have never been married, above 84% of zip codes. 86005 runs against the grain of Arizona, a Democratic-leaning pocket in a Republican-leaning state.
Population density and Democratic lean
Places with high population density tend to lean Democratic; 86005, AZ sits in the top quarter nationally on this measure.
Why turnout in 86005 looks the way it does
Areas with high high-school completion turn out at higher rates. About 97% of adults in 86005 have completed high school, about 10 points above the Arizona average of 87%. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.