86432 leans heavily Republican by roughly 48 points: about 26% of voters vote Democratic and 74% Republican.
About 60% of adults in 86432 typically vote, near the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 86432, ~16% vote Democratic, ~44% Republican, and ~40% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 86432 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 86432 leans more Republican than 2 of 3 neighbors.
86432 runs about 43 points more Republican than Arizona as a whole.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 86432. The southeast side is the most Republican-leaning (R+59) and the west side is the least Republican-leaning (R+44), a spread of about 15 points.
Why 86432 leans the way it does
Density, race composition, education, and family structure all sit close to their national averages in 86432. The lean here lands roughly where demographic data alone would predict.
Cancer-screening access and voter turnout
Places with low colon-cancer-screening access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 86432, AZ sits in the bottom tenth nationally on this measure. Cancer screening does not drive turnout; it reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access.
Why turnout in 86432 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 86432 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The dental-visit rate here is about 49%, about 5 points below the Arizona average of 54%. High-crime urban areas turn out at lower rates, and 86432 sits in the top 15% on a violent-crime measure. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from Arizona Secretary of State, Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.