88431 leans slightly Republican by roughly 14 points: about 43% of voters vote Democratic and 57% Republican.
About 53% of adults in 88431 typically vote, below the U.S. average of about 62%. Among adults in 88431, ~23% vote Democratic, ~30% Republican, and ~47% don't vote. The map below shows estimated turnout by block group.
How 88431 compares
Among zip codes within 15 miles, 88431 leans more Republican than 1 of 3 neighbors.
88431 runs about 19 points more Republican than New Mexico as a whole. New Mexico leans Democratic overall, while 88431 is one of the few Republican-leaning pockets.
Politics vary noticeably by block within 88431. The northwest side is the most Republican-leaning (R+35) and the south side is the least Republican-leaning (R+5), a spread of about 30 points.
Why 88431 leans the way it does
This analysis examined 14,881 data points per zip code to find what predicts political lean and turnout. The items below are a few correlations that stood out for 88431, not a ranked or complete list of what matters most.
Rural areas vote Republican. Fewer than 1% of residents in 88431 live in densely developed areas, about 17 points below the New Mexico average of 18%. Low college attainment predicts Republican voting, and 88431 sits in the bottom quarter (about 12%, below 89% of zip codes). 88431 runs against the grain of New Mexico, a Republican-leaning pocket in a Democratic-leaning state.
Preventive-care access and voter turnout
Places with limited routine preventive-care access tend to turn out at a lower rate; 88431, NM sits in the bottom quarter nationally on this measure. Dental visits do not drive turnout; the rate reflects income, insurance, and healthcare access, which line up with who votes.
Why turnout in 88431 looks the way it does
Areas with limited routine healthcare access turn out at lower rates. 88431 is in the bottom quarter nationally for routine-care measures such as insurance coverage, preventive screenings, and dental visits. The uninsured rate here is about 23%, about 7 points above the New Mexico average of 16%. High food insecurity lines up with lower turnout, and about 28% of adults in 88431 report food insecurity, above 92% of zip codes. Learn more about the findings and methodology on the political spectrum map.
Nearby Zip Codes
Zip Codes with Similar Populations
- 95613, CA R+23
Sources and methodology
Precinct-level voting records used to fit the model come from New Mexico Secretary of State, Bureau of Elections, distributed by the Voting and Election Science Team. Demographic inputs come from the U.S. Census Bureau (ACS 5-year estimates and the 2020 Decennial Census). Health and environmental inputs come from the CDC (PLACES and the Environmental Justice Index). Land cover comes from the USGS and EPA. Election-day and lead-up weather come from PRISM 4km daily grids and the NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network. Mail-voting and election-administration patterns come from the MIT Election Lab's Survey of the Performance of American Elections. Block-group crime detail comes from CrimeGrade. Internet data and modeling support provided by ISPreports.org.
Modeling and analysis by the BestNeighborhood data science team. Full methodology and findings: political spectrum map.
Methodology reviewed by the BestNeighborhood data team. Last updated May 2026.